MAST Weekly Update 18/11/15

Martin Kobler has taken over as the UN’s Special Representative in Libya.  The out going representative, Bernardino Leon, has left under a cloud of corruption accusations which biased him to the officially recognised Tobruk based government. This is embarrassing for the UN and presents a problem if the EU continues to threaten sanctions based on an agreement which has been thrown into doubt. Kobler has stated they must build on all the previous efforts to find a peaceful solution and focus on uniting the warring parties behind the threat posed by ISIL.
Despite the alleged bias of Leon the situation is probably unlikely to change. The Tripoli based government is completely against any involvement from General Haftar, the Tobruk Government’s leading General and most influential figure. Unless Haftar relinquishes his control of the Tobruk based Government we are unlikely to see any agreement between the Libyan players.
The UN is continuing to deliver support to the civilians and casualties caught up within Yemen’s on-going civil war and is still ultimately aiming to broker a deal between the two sides.   As it stands, there seems to be a slight stalemate occurring where neither side has the resources to entirely uproot the other – 9 months of civil war has certainly taken its toll.  It is unlikely that a deal satisfying both sides will be reached.  Therefore, the likely hood of a state of civil war pertaining for the foreseeable future is likely.
Aden has been highly contested and a centre point of attention for several months.  The president of Yemen, Mr Hadi has recently arrived in Yemen with the aim of spurring onwards a new offensive against the Houthi rebels.   This is likely to draw attention to the area of Aden, mostly unwanted, making Aden again a target for terrorist activity.
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