The NDA appear to be taking the place of Tompolo’s terrorist organization, Members of the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). There is a critical difference between MEND and the NDA: MEND’s aim was redistribute oil wealth more effectively; the NDA’s aim is to create a sovereign state in the Niger Delta. In the case of the warning given it is likely the NDA are seeking the release of Nnamdi Kanu, the Biafran independence activist who was arrested in October last year, and who they have declared an affiliation with. Given his previous record President Buhari is unlikely to want to negotiate.
Further violence mainly targeting oil and gas infrastructure and support logistics should be expected in the Niger Delta over the coming weeks.